KGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KGS - Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
$61.46
0.86 (1.42%)
â˛
5d:
-5.95%
30d:
-5.85%
90d:
-15.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KGS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KGS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.05
Based on 13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.54
17.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KGS is currently trading at $61.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.18 to $65.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $57.93, while resistance sits at $66.43.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.47 (+34.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $57.93, while resistance sits at $66.43.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.47 (+34.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$58.18 -
$65.75
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($82.47)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.18 -
$65.75
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.93
Resistance Level
$66.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.62
Wall Street Target
$82.47
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 20.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.72
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$59.99
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$59.27
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â20)
$61.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 23.3%)
$117.71
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 23.3%)
$115.09
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 23.3%)
$97.83
(+59%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 27.93 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.20
Bull Case
$74.21
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 29.3
Base Case
$61.46
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.9
Bear Case
$47.02
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 25.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 20.4
Stabilization Target:
$63.89
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pedro R Buhigas
SELL
13942 shares
2026-03-19
Ewan William Hamilton
SELL
5797 shares
2026-03-17
Cory Anne Roclawski
SELL
10852 shares
2026-03-16
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