KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$35.18
0.07 (0.21%)
▲
5d:
-3.63%
30d:
-2.51%
90d:
-2.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.83
Based on 1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.39
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $35.17, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.18 to $35.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $31.71, while resistance sits at $36.34.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $31.71, while resistance sits at $36.34.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$33.18 -
$35.92
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.18 -
$35.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.72
Resistance Level
$36.34
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.13
Wall Street Target
$37.19
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.59
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.43
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.59
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→15)
$42.61
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.7%)
$79.44
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -1.7%)
$33.29
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -1.7%)
$28.30
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$77.97
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$70.88
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$24.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$58.46
(+66.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 11:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
John Wayne Witt
SELL
5060 shares
2026-02-19
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