KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$29.96
0.18 (0.60%)
▲
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
-14.06%
90d:
-14.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.96
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.12
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $29.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.28 to $35.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 928.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.28 -
$35.11
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.28 -
$35.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.66
Resistance Level
$32.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.86
Wall Street Target
$33.00
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
928.7%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 13.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$24.27
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→14)
$38.35
(+28%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -2.2%)
$71.50
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -2.2%)
$27.99
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -2.2%)
$23.80
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.30
Bull Case
$29.04
(-3%)
Analyst growth -11.3%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$26.40
(-12%)
Market implied -11.3%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$20.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$52.61
(+75.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+75.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
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