KNSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$295.05
-13.80 (-4.47%)
▼
5d:
-5.24%
30d:
-5.34%
90d:
-10.1%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KNSL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KNSL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$442.65
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$274.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSL is currently trading at $295.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $299.80 to $314.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $287.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: KNSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $345.00 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $287.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: KNSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $345.00 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$299.80 -
$314.68
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($345.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$299.80 -
$314.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$287.20
Resistance Level
$316.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.61
Wall Street Target
$345.00
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.4%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$275.58
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$257.39
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$240.40
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$295.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.2%)
$534.12
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 4.2%)
$333.72
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 4.2%)
$283.66
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.70
Bull Case
$329.15
(+12%)
Analyst growth -4.5%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$299.23
(+1%)
Market implied -4.5%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$213.03
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$362.09
(+22.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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