KNSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$356.42
0.55 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+3.23%
90d:
+10.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KNSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KNSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$418.06
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$259.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSL is currently trading at $356.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $326.08 to $357.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $320.04, while resistance sits at $380.20.
Market Sentiment: KNSL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $320.04, while resistance sits at $380.20.
Market Sentiment: KNSL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$326.08 -
$357.54
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($349.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$326.08 -
$357.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$320.04
Resistance Level
$380.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.47
Wall Street Target
$349.78
(-1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.0%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$356.06
(0%)
2-Year Target
$355.71
(0%)
3-Year Target
$355.35
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$356.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.4%)
$482.20
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 2.4%)
$383.00
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 2.4%)
$325.55
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.27
Bull Case
$364.15
(+2%)
Analyst growth -7.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$331.05
(-7%)
Market implied -7.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$241.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$357.17
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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