LKQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LKQ - LKQ Corporation
$22.45
-0.15 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
-13.05%
30d:
-14.15%
90d:
-28.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LKQ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LKQ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.88
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.25
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LKQ is currently trading at $22.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.53 to $26.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.17, while resistance sits at $27.28.
Market Sentiment: LKQ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+74.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.17, while resistance sits at $27.28.
Market Sentiment: LKQ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+74.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.53 -
$26.58
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LKQ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.8% below Wall St target ($39.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.53 -
$26.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.17
Resistance Level
$27.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.80
Wall Street Target
$39.50
(+74.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.8%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.61
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$18.80
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$17.14
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$22.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$97.07
(+330%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$31.71
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$26.96
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$48.49
(+116%)
Analyst growth 67.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$44.08
(+96%)
Market implied 67.0%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$17.95
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$29.92
(+32.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 3:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LKQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
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