LKQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LKQ - LKQ Corporation
$25.41
-0.39 (-1.51%)
▼
5d:
-3.02%
30d:
-1.74%
90d:
-10.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LKQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LKQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.37
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.55
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LKQ is currently trading at $25.41, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.06 to $26.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.81 (+60.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.81 (+60.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$25.06 -
$26.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.6% below Wall St target ($40.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.06 -
$26.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.72
Resistance Level
$27.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.64
Wall Street Target
$40.81
(+60.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.8%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.94
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$22.55
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$21.24
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$25.29
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$101.60
(+300%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 12.0%)
$35.66
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$30.31
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$47.17
(+86%)
Analyst growth 66.2%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$42.88
(+69%)
Market implied 66.2%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$17.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.25
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LKQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
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