LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$77.43
3.67 (4.98%)
▲
5d:
+1.15%
30d:
-0.23%
90d:
+12.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.73
9.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $77.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.81 to $78.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $77.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.31 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $77.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.31 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$71.81 -
$78.32
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($93.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with -20.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.81 -
$78.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.42
Resistance Level
$77.79
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.81
Wall Street Target
$93.31
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.3%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.79
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$75.84
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$76.90
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 105.1%)
$248.94
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 105.1%)
$248.04
(+236%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 105.1%)
$210.83
(+186%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (62x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 61.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$159.35
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 68.1
Base Case
$144.86
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 61.9
Bear Case
$49.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 52.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Lizanne M Bruce
SELL
1300 shares
2026-03-10
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BUY
2026-02-27
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20000 shares
2026-02-19
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