LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$371.33
-38.21 (-9.33%)
▼
5d:
-4.52%
30d:
+22.86%
90d:
+59.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LRCX trades at premium valuation expecting 8.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: LRCX trades at premium valuation expecting 8.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$389.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$242.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $371.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $297.11 to $368.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 46.4) compared to its historical average (36.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $306.01, while resistance sits at $409.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $306.01, while resistance sits at $409.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$297.11 -
$368.62
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LRCX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($335.74)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.2% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$297.11 -
$368.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$306.01
Resistance Level
$409.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.37
Wall Street Target
$335.74
(-9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.8%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.2% premium
PE vs Historical
46.4 vs 36.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$401.78
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$434.72
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$470.37
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→37)
PE COMPRESSION
$371.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.4, Growth: 41.0%)
$1040.66
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.0%)
$488.80
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 41.0%)
$415.48
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 49.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.31
Bull Case
$494.52
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.7
Base Case
$409.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 49.3
Bear Case
$313.30
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 44.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
David Taylor
BUY
2026-03-12
Ava Harter
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced LRCX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LRCX price and gamma walls.
