LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LRCX - Lam Research Corp

SPECIAL INDUSTRY MACHINERY, NEC
$314.00
3.47 (1.12%) ▲
5d: -5.52%
30d: -1.81%
90d: +3.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $308.42 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: LRCX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$398.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$247.28
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $314.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $292.82 to $332.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.4) is in line with its historical norms (37.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $302.95, while resistance sits at $345.28.

Market Sentiment: LRCX scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $371.35 (+18.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $292.82 - $332.30
Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 48.6%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($371.35)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $292.82 - $332.30
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $302.95
Resistance Level $345.28
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 38.38
Wall Street Target $371.35 (+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 30.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 34.8%
Profit Margin 31.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.6% premium
PE vs Historical 38.4 vs 37.7 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $315.88 (+1%)
2-Year Target $317.78 (+1%)
3-Year Target $319.69 (+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 38→38) PE COMPRESSION $313.99 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 38.4, Growth: 43.7%) $930.82 (+196%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 43.7%) $486.69 (+55%)
Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 43.7%) $413.69 (+32%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 33.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.45
Bull Case $379.15 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.9
Base Case $314.00 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case $240.21 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30
David Taylor BUY 2026-03-12
Ava Harter SELL 1500 shares 2026-03-04

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Advanced LRCX Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LRCX price and gamma walls.

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