LTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LTM - LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing two thousand (2,000) shares of Common Stock)

Air Transportation, Scheduled
$49.71
-1.30 (-2.55%) ▼
5d: -6.44%
30d: +9.83%
90d: -3.79%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LTM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.47
28.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LTM is currently trading at $49.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.22 to $52.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LTM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.19, while resistance sits at $54.10.

Market Sentiment: LTM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.31 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $47.22 - $52.14
Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 61.9%

All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($70.31)
  • CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $47.22 - $52.14
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $46.19
Resistance Level $54.11
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Jun 3, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.35
Wall Street Target $70.31 (+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 70.7%
Profit Margin 11.2%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical 7.4 vs 8.5 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $47.32 (-5%)
2-Year Target $45.05 (-9%)
3-Year Target $42.89 (-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→9) $49.57 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.9, Growth: 32.8%) $346.71 (+598%)
Base: (SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 32.8%) $116.38 (+134%)
Bear: (PE: 6.3, Growth: 32.8%) $98.92 (+99%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.79
Bull Case $68.23 (+28%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case $62.02 (+17%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case $36.13 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.5
Stabilization Target: $57.45 (+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential: +15.6%
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Last updated: June 04, 2026 1:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
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