What is the fair value of MBLY stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MBLY to be between $8.16 and $9.28. The current price is $9.03.

What is the analyst price target for MBLY?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MBLY is $12.11. This implies a potential upside of 34.1% from current levels.

MBLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MBLY - Mobileye Global Inc. Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$9.03

0.15 (1.69%) ▲

5d: +1.23%

30d: +20.88%

90d: -7.86%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $8.73 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MBLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -2.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$12.13

Based on 0.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$7.53

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MBLY is currently trading at $9.03, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.16 to $9.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 99.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MBLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.63, while resistance sits at $9.43.

Market Sentiment: MBLY scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.11 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $8.16 - $9.28

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($12.11)
WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $8.16 - $9.28

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $8.63

Resistance Level $9.43

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.56

Wall Street Target $12.11 (+34.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 99.7%

Profit Margin -201.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -8.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.6 vs 24.3 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -8.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $8.26 (-9%)

2-Year Target $7.56 (-16%)

3-Year Target $6.92 (-23%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→24) $9.06 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -2.9%) $8.94 (+-1%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: -2.9%) $8.27 (-8%)

Bear: (PE: 15.8, Growth: -2.9%) $7.03 (-22%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 24.3

Stabilization Target: $11.82 (+30.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +30.9%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM

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Advanced MBLY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MBLY price and gamma walls.

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