MCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$104.90
0.42 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
-4.21%
90d:
+5.6%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.74
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $104.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.73 to $108.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$104.73 -
$108.05
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$104.73 -
$108.05
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.17
Resistance Level
$109.12
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.53
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.79
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$91.53
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$85.68
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$104.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -9.3%)
$183.51
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -9.3%)
$78.06
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -9.3%)
$66.35
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.02
Bull Case
$84.14
(-20%)
Analyst growth -28.0%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$76.49
(-27%)
Market implied -28.0%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$72.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$127.40
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 26, 2026 1:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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