Mercury General (MCY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$101.91
-0.36 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
+3.1%
30d:
-3.9%
90d:
-8.06%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.55
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $101.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $99.35 to $103.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $102.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCY scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $102.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCY scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$99.35 -
$103.31
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$99.35 -
$103.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.68
Resistance Level
$102.87
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.32
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.49
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$89.47
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$83.84
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$101.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: -9.3%)
$180.31
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: -9.3%)
$76.14
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -9.3%)
$64.72
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.25
Bull Case
$79.89
(-22%)
Analyst growth -29.0%, PE expands to 6.5
Base Case
$72.63
(-29%)
Market implied -29.0%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$69.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$123.72
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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