MCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$107.49
2.23 (2.12%)
▲
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
+6.39%
90d:
+14.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.80
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $107.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.02 to $109.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $102.20, while resistance sits at $113.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+11.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $102.20, while resistance sits at $113.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+11.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$102.02 -
$109.41
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.02 -
$109.41
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.20
Resistance Level
$113.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.96
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.9%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.79
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$96.40
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$91.29
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$108.03
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 2.1%)
$268.56
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 2.1%)
$114.50
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 2.1%)
$97.32
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.81
Bull Case
$93.82
(-13%)
Analyst growth -19.0%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$85.29
(-21%)
Market implied -19.0%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$71.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$127.20
(+18.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 17, 2026 4:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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