MCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$105.94
2.79 (2.70%)
▲
5d:
+4.86%
30d:
+3.52%
90d:
+21.02%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.59
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $105.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.41 to $102.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$98.41 -
$102.75
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.41 -
$102.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.22
Resistance Level
$102.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.60
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.9%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.72
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$88.83
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$82.44
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$103.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.1%)
$278.40
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 2.1%)
$109.88
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 2.1%)
$93.39
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.17
Bull Case
$89.34
(-13%)
Analyst growth -20.9%, PE expands to 7.4
Base Case
$81.22
(-21%)
Market implied -20.9%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$69.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$129.60
(+25.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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