Mercury General (MCY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$102.51
-0.93 (-0.90%)
▼
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
-2.72%
90d:
+1.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 58% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 58% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.61
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $102.51, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.38 to $106.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCY scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCY scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$102.38 -
$106.30
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.38 -
$106.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.67
Resistance Level
$107.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.37
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.85
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$89.62
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$83.79
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$102.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -9.3%)
$184.79
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -9.3%)
$76.59
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -9.3%)
$65.10
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.92
Bull Case
$81.50
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.6%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$74.09
(-28%)
Market implied -27.6%, PE stable at 6.1
Bear Case
$69.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$124.95
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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