Mercury General (MCY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$102.85
-3.86 (-3.62%)
▼
5d:
+0.05%
30d:
+4.64%
90d:
-5.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.48
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $102.85, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $99.44 to $103.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.00 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$99.44 -
$103.74
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$99.44 -
$103.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.20
Resistance Level
$107.34
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.40
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.09
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$91.65
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$86.52
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$103.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -9.3%)
$181.77
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -9.3%)
$76.84
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -9.3%)
$65.32
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.92
Bull Case
$84.98
(-17%)
Analyst growth -27.6%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$77.26
(-25%)
Market implied -27.6%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$72.56
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$122.50
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 11:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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