MDU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$19.95
-0.02 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
-6.12%
30d:
-3.67%
90d:
-11.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MDU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.90
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $19.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.51 to $21.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $19.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.50 (+10.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $19.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.50 (+10.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.51 -
$21.46
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -10.2% revenue growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.51 -
$21.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.80
Resistance Level
$21.38
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.04
Wall Street Target
$23.50
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.27
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$21.29
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$21.31
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$28.40
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$27.35
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$23.25
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$26.81
(+34%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$24.38
(+22%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$14.38
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles M Kelley
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-13
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