MDU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$19.95
-0.36 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
-3.39%
30d:
-5.67%
90d:
-8.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.48
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $19.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.18 to $21.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.62 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.62 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.18 -
$21.05
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.18 -
$21.05
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.88
Resistance Level
$20.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.83
Wall Street Target
$23.63
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.57
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$19.20
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$18.83
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$20.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$26.91
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 8.2%)
$25.24
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 8.2%)
$21.45
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$25.46
(+28%)
Analyst growth 13.9%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$23.14
(+16%)
Market implied 13.9%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$13.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$21.19
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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