MEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEC - Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
$34.16
-0.55 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-1.67%
30d:
+47.69%
90d:
+98.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.50
11.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEC is currently trading at $34.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.47 to $35.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.8) compared to its historical average (31.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.77, while resistance sits at $35.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.77, while resistance sits at $35.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$26.47 -
$35.15
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.47 -
$35.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.41
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.77
Resistance Level
$35.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.82
Wall Street Target
$33.70
(-1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
-2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.8 vs 31.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.52
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$30.96
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$29.47
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→31)
$34.18
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.8, Growth: 1176.3%)
$115.29
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 1176.3%)
$93.63
(+174%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 1176.3%)
$79.58
(+133%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.8 to 31.1
Stabilization Target:
$39.61
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sean P Leuba
SELL
6698 shares
2026-03-05
Sean P Leuba
SELL
2500 shares
2026-03-05
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