MEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEC - Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
$21.73
-0.92 (-4.06%)
▼
5d:
-9.8%
30d:
-28.54%
90d:
-6.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.73
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEC is currently trading at $21.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.10 to $29.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (30.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MEC scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.80 (+69.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MEC scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.80 (+69.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.10 -
$29.31
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 69.4% below Wall St target ($36.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.10 -
$29.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.74
(8.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.49
Resistance Level
$25.09
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.38
Wall Street Target
$36.80
(+69.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
-2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 30.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.60
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→30)
$22.46
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.4, Growth: 293.3%)
$73.34
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 293.3%)
$68.86
(+217%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 293.3%)
$58.53
(+169%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 30.3
Stabilization Target:
$30.80
(+41.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sean P Leuba
SELL
6698 shares
2026-03-05
Sean P Leuba
SELL
2500 shares
2026-03-05
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