Mayville Engineering (MEC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEC - Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
$19.10
0.20 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
-1.7%
30d:
-18.31%
90d:
-45.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.73
37.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEC is currently trading at $19.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.49 to $23.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (29.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MEC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.80 (+92.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MEC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.80 (+92.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.49 -
$23.62
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
34th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 34th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 92.7% below Wall St target ($36.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.49 -
$23.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.49
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.60
Resistance Level
$20.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.79
Wall Street Target
$36.80
(+92.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
-2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 29.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$15.47
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.92
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→30)
$21.86
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 293.3%)
$69.20
(+262%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 293.3%)
$64.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 293.3%)
$54.79
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 29.5
Stabilization Target:
$29.99
(+57.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 11:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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