MFA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFA - MFA Financial, Inc
$8.91
-0.03 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
-2.73%
30d:
-1.76%
90d:
-6.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.33
21.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFA is currently trading at $8.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.03 to $9.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.4) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 61.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFA scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+57.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFA scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+57.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.03 -
$9.35
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.1% below Wall St target ($14.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.03 -
$9.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.86
Resistance Level
$9.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.37
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+57.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.9%
Profit Margin
48.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.75
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.59
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$8.44
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$8.87
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 33.4%)
$66.60
(+648%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 33.4%)
$21.15
(+137%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 33.4%)
$17.98
(+102%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$13.89
(+56%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$12.62
(+42%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$6.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.37
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 2:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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