MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$9.94
-0.16 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
+1.74%
30d:
-3.87%
90d:
+8.52%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.69
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $9.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.79 to $10.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.41, while resistance sits at $10.36.
Market Sentiment: MFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.41, while resistance sits at $10.36.
Market Sentiment: MFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.79 -
$10.17
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -6.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.79 -
$10.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.41
Resistance Level
$10.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.64
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.77
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$9.81
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$9.85
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.79
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 31.2%)
$69.30
(+612%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 31.2%)
$21.97
(+126%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 31.2%)
$18.67
(+92%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$10.58
(+7%)
Analyst growth -1.0%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$9.62
(-3%)
Market implied -1.0%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$6.61
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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