MHO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MHO - M/I Homes, Inc.
$152.37
2.42 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
+0.17%
30d:
+3.77%
90d:
+18.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MHO trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MHO trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.44
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MHO is currently trading at $152.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $147.83 to $152.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $156.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.67 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $156.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.67 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$147.83 -
$152.64
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MHO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($170.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.0% growth with -8.5% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$147.83 -
$152.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.84
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$147.32
Resistance Level
$156.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.51
Wall Street Target
$170.67
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.7%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 8.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.51
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$171.20
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$181.48
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$151.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.7%)
$473.75
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 17.7%)
$248.18
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 17.7%)
$207.72
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.91
Bull Case
$206.94
(+36%)
Analyst growth 21.7%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$188.12
(+24%)
Market implied 21.7%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$105.13
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MHO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MHO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MHO price and gamma walls.