MOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$21.81
-0.31 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
-2.37%
30d:
+3.22%
90d:
-5.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.00
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $21.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.33 to $22.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.45 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.45 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.33 -
$22.72
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($27.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.33 -
$22.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.61
Resistance Level
$23.27
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.03
Wall Street Target
$27.45
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.96
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$23.83
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$24.74
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.20
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 144.8%)
$128.60
(+481%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 144.8%)
$74.66
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 144.8%)
$63.46
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.93
Bull Case
$26.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$22.12
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$16.92
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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