MOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$22.31
0.80 (3.72%)
▲
5d:
+5.34%
30d:
+12.56%
90d:
-9.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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1 traders called MOS this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.63
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $22.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.88 to $22.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.75, while resistance sits at $24.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.19 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.75, while resistance sits at $24.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.19 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$20.88 -
$22.42
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($27.19)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.88 -
$22.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.76
Resistance Level
$24.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.72
Wall Street Target
$27.19
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.00
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$23.71
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$24.45
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 122.9%)
$139.94
(+527%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 122.9%)
$75.30
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 122.9%)
$64.00
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.01
Bull Case
$26.94
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$22.31
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$17.07
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2026-03-23
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2026-01-29
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