MT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MT - ArcelorMittal
$72.20
1.09 (1.53%)
â˛
5d:
-2.25%
30d:
+9.2%
90d:
+12.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.45
10.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $72.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.67 to $73.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.29, while resistance sits at $75.28.
Market Sentiment: MT scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.29, while resistance sits at $75.28.
Market Sentiment: MT scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$66.67 -
$73.66
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
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Holding MT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 5.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.67 -
$73.66
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.29
Resistance Level
$75.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.88
Wall Street Target
$76.20
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-61.7%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.22
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$76.30
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$78.44
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.28
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 66.1%)
$495.24
(+586%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 66.1%)
$243.68
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 66.1%)
$207.12
(+187%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.47
Bull Case
$164.10
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.2
Base Case
$149.18
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.2
Bear Case
$50.72
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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