MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$551.32
0.06 (0.01%)
▲
5d:
-11.44%
30d:
-0.78%
90d:
+16.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MUSA is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MUSA is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$450.62
Based on -2.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$279.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $551.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $523.76 to $585.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $561.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $561.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$523.76 -
$585.45
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MUSA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($566.89)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$523.76 -
$585.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$29.17
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$501.70
Resistance Level
$561.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.80
Wall Street Target
$566.89
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 17.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$566.21
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$581.49
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$597.19
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$552.66
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -8.7%)
$485.47
(+-12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: -8.7%)
$419.10
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: -8.7%)
$356.23
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.78
Bull Case
$617.81
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.9%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$561.64
(+2%)
Market implied 1.9%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$374.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott G Woodward
SELL
137 shares
2026-03-05
Keith A Emery
SELL
899 shares
2026-02-26
Jeanne Linder Phillips
SELL
1155 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced MUSA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MUSA price and gamma walls.
