MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$607.76
-8.34 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
-0.88%
30d:
+8.76%
90d:
+3.36%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$451.34
Based on -3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$280.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $607.76, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $555.28 to $620.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.3) compared to its historical average (17.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $589.16, while resistance sits at $635.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $589.16, while resistance sits at $635.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$555.28 -
$620.19
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($630.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$555.28 -
$620.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$35.45
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$589.17
Resistance Level
$635.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.33
Wall Street Target
$630.90
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
20.3 vs 17.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$636.93
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$667.51
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$699.55
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$608.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -10.0%)
$451.68
(+-26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.3, Growth: -10.0%)
$443.06
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -10.0%)
$376.60
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.78
Bull Case
$703.82
(+16%)
Analyst growth 3.9%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$639.84
(+5%)
Market implied 3.9%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$418.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott G Woodward
SELL
137 shares
2026-03-05
Keith A Emery
SELL
899 shares
2026-02-26
Jeanne Linder Phillips
SELL
1155 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced MUSA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MUSA price and gamma walls.
