MURPHY USA (MUSA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$527.78
+8.34 (+1.61%)
▲
5d:
+5.05%
30d:
+0.87%
90d:
-6.28%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (85%)
Quality Score
56/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$513.48 – $538.35
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.4x
FAIR
vs 17.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$616.00
+16.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$482.46 / $550.00
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MUSA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Get Alerted When MUSA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$407.58
Based on -5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$253.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $527.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $513.48 to $538.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $482.46, while resistance sits at $550.00.
Market Sentiment: MUSA scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $616.00 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $482.46, while resistance sits at $550.00.
Market Sentiment: MUSA scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $616.00 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$513.48 -
$538.35
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$513.48 -
$538.35
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$24.58
(4.7%)
Support Level
$482.46
Resistance Level
$550.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($616.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.39
Wall Street Target
$616.00
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.9%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$526.20
(0%)
2-Year Target
$524.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$523.04
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$529.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -14.1%)
$439.43
(+-17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: -14.1%)
$384.75
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: -14.1%)
$327.04
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $35.55
Bull Case
$487.83
(-8%)
Analyst growth -14.6%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$443.48
(-16%)
Market implied -14.6%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$353.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$534.18
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share MUSA Analysis
Share this live MUSA analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MUSA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Casey's General Stores (CASY) has had a winning streak of beating the S&P 500 in each of the last five years. Only 7 of the 485 large U.S. stocks matched this performance, and the actual total is barely above what could be expected by chance.
Key Retail Themes:
Casey's winning streak
Performance comparison to S&P 500
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Specialty Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc |
BUY
28 analysts |
$636 | 35 SELL |
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$37 | 37 SELL |
|
FIVE
Five Below Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$305 | 40 HOLD |
|
DKS
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$161 | 50 HOLD |
|
CASY
Caseys General Stores Inc |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$789 | 48 HOLD |
Advanced MUSA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MUSA price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive MUSA Research Pages
