MURPHY USA (MUSA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$511.37
7.34 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
-4.68%
90d:
-8.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUSA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MUSA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$434.02
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$269.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $511.37, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $506.56 to $533.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $500.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $617.80 (+20.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $500.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $617.80 (+20.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$506.56 -
$533.41
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MUSA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.8% below Wall St target ($617.80)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$506.56 -
$533.41
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$26.24
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$500.01
Resistance Level
$529.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.67
Wall Street Target
$617.80
(+20.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.1%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$502.17
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$493.13
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$484.25
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$511.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -12.2%)
$456.19
(+-11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: -12.2%)
$372.79
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: -12.2%)
$316.87
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.46
Bull Case
$523.94
(+3%)
Analyst growth -5.5%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$476.31
(-7%)
Market implied -5.5%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$342.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$539.88
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MUSA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MUSA price and gamma walls.
