NOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$21.15
0.31 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-0.14%
30d:
+20.44%
90d:
-22.13%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.44
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.35
19.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $21.15, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.48 to $21.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.68, while resistance sits at $22.74.
Market Sentiment: NOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.89 (+46.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.68, while resistance sits at $22.74.
Market Sentiment: NOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.89 (+46.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$18.48 -
$21.16
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.0% below Wall St target ($30.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.48 -
$21.16
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.68
Resistance Level
$22.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.96
Wall Street Target
$30.89
(+46.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.5%
Profit Margin
-32.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 7.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.04
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.13
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$22.39
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$115.65
(+447%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 9.4%)
$27.66
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 9.4%)
$23.51
(+11%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$30.71
(+45.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.
