NOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$27.34
0.43 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+11.59%
30d:
+25.41%
90d:
+15.75%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: NOG is 11.5% above its trading range ($24.53). Market expects -3.8% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: NOG is 11.5% above its trading range ($24.53). Market expects -3.8% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.33
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $27.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.04 to $24.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 119.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.04 -
$24.53
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
16.7%
Protect Your Profits
NOG is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.04 -
$24.53
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.98
Resistance Level
$27.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.34
Wall Street Target
$30.33
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
119.0%
Profit Margin
-24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.30
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$25.30
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$24.34
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$27.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.2%)
$100.84
(+269%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 5.2%)
$31.86
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 5.2%)
$27.08
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.61
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.
