NVMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$525.65
-57.45 (-9.85%)
▼
5d:
-13.21%
30d:
+5.87%
90d:
+11.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NVMI is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NVMI is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$608.98
Based on 13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$378.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $525.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $488.80 to $558.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 45.1) compared to its historical average (39.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $474.78, while resistance sits at $615.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVMI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $474.78, while resistance sits at $615.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVMI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$488.80 -
$558.09
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($597.62)
- BEARISH: Market expects 4.9% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$488.80 -
$558.09
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$474.78
Resistance Level
$615.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.07
Wall Street Target
$597.63
(+2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
45.1 vs 39.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$611.67
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$641.64
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$673.08
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$582.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.1, Growth: 23.4%)
$1095.46
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 23.4%)
$529.34
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 23.4%)
$449.94
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 53.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.85
Bull Case
$704.09
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 56.5
Base Case
$583.10
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 53.8
Bear Case
$446.07
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 48.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yaniv Garty
SELL
55 shares
2026-04-02
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