NVMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$390.87
-3.20 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
-10.76%
30d:
-22.23%
90d:
-21.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NVMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$612.91
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$380.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $390.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $417.23 to $501.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (38.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $356.50, while resistance sits at $463.89.
Market Sentiment: NVMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $603.38 (+54.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $356.50, while resistance sits at $463.89.
Market Sentiment: NVMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $603.38 (+54.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$417.23 -
$501.30
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.4% below Wall St target ($603.38)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$417.23 -
$501.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$356.50
Resistance Level
$463.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.15
Wall Street Target
$603.38
(+54.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 38.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$359.60
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$330.83
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$304.37
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→39)
$390.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 23.6%)
$737.63
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 23.6%)
$507.22
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 23.6%)
$431.13
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.56
Bull Case
$656.57
(+68%)
Analyst growth 51.5%, PE expands to 50.6
Base Case
$596.88
(+53%)
Market implied 51.5%, PE stable at 46.0
Bear Case
$267.97
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.1 to 38.7
Stabilization Target:
$501.76
(+28.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yaniv Garty
SELL
55 shares
2026-04-02
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