NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6358.51
58.51 (0.93%)
▲
5d:
+0.8%
30d:
+3.31%
90d:
+5.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9980.37
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6197.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6358.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6240.05 to $6462.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $6200.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $6200.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6240.05 -
$6462.53
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6782.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6240.05 -
$6462.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6200.00
Resistance Level
$6526.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.45
Wall Street Target
$6782.00
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6307.64
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$6257.18
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$6207.12
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$6348.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$12236.74
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$9418.31
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$8005.57
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $377.37
Bull Case
$7559.04
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.1%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$6871.86
(+8%)
Market implied 9.1%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$4284.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$6503.66
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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