ONTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONTO - Onto Innovation Inc.
$268.49
9.91 (3.83%)
▲
5d:
+2.35%
30d:
-12.71%
90d:
-8.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$484.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$300.63
10.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONTO is currently trading at $268.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $265.08 to $335.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.0) is in line with its historical norms (29.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.07, while resistance sits at $303.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.60 (+37.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.07, while resistance sits at $303.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.60 (+37.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$265.08 -
$335.94
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.7% below Wall St target ($369.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$265.08 -
$335.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.07
Resistance Level
$303.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.00
Wall Street Target
$369.60
(+37.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.5%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 29.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$261.51
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$254.71
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$248.09
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→29)
$268.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 38.2%)
$708.96
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 38.2%)
$544.39
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 38.2%)
$462.73
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.10 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.44
Bull Case
$324.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$268.49
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.1
Bear Case
$205.39
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.0 to 29.2
Stabilization Target:
$290.40
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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