ONTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONTO - Onto Innovation Inc.
$304.21
-17.23 (-5.36%)
▼
5d:
+0.12%
30d:
+12.95%
90d:
+18.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$484.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$300.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONTO is currently trading at $304.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $283.27 to $342.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.6) is in line with its historical norms (29.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $268.54, while resistance sits at $386.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.60 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $268.54, while resistance sits at $386.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.60 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$283.27 -
$342.78
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($369.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 9.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$283.27 -
$342.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$268.54
Resistance Level
$386.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.59
Wall Street Target
$369.60
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.5%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
30.6 vs 29.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$308.47
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$312.79
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$317.17
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$303.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.6, Growth: 38.2%)
$803.28
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.2%)
$571.96
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 38.2%)
$486.17
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 44.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.78
Bull Case
$367.33
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.1
Base Case
$304.21
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.8
Bear Case
$232.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ONTO price and gamma walls.
