Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONTO - Onto Innovation Inc.
$198.67
-23.47 (-10.57%)
▼
5d:
-14.35%
30d:
-29.63%
90d:
-27.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ONTO is down 14.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ONTO is down 14.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$569.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$353.58
43.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONTO is currently trading at $198.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $235.37 to $304.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $196.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $383.33 (+92.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $196.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $383.33 (+92.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$235.37 -
$304.92
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ONTO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 92.9% below Wall St target ($383.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$235.37 -
$304.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$196.54
Resistance Level
$299.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.98
Wall Street Target
$383.33
(+92.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 28.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.80
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$160.92
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$144.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→28)
$238.76
(+20%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 44.3%)
$697.93
(+251%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 44.3%)
$596.89
(+200%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 44.3%)
$507.35
(+155%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.83 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.70
Bull Case
$239.89
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$198.67
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$151.98
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$327.51
(+64.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+64.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ONTO price and gamma walls.
