ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc.
MEASURING & CONTROLLING DEVICES, NEC
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Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$215.06
+17.55 (+8.89%)
▲
5d:
+16.36%
30d:
-18.4%
90d:
-36.34%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (88%)
Quality Score
60/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$185.50 – $272.13
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.9x
CHEAP
vs 27.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$354.00
+64.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$155.13 / $229.14
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ONTO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.8% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$620.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$384.97
44.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONTO is currently trading at $215.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $185.50 to $272.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 66.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $155.13, while resistance sits at $229.14. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $354.00 (+64.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $155.13, while resistance sits at $229.14. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $354.00 (+64.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$185.50 -
$272.13
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$185.50 -
$272.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$155.13
Resistance Level
$229.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 64.6% below Wall St target ($354.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.89
Wall Street Target
$354.00
(+64.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
87.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.7%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 27.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$174.20
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$156.78
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→27)
$253.45
(+18%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 50.2%)
$853.62
(+297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 50.2%)
$725.83
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 50.2%)
$616.95
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 16.45 | Forward EPS (Implied): $13.08
Bull Case
$259.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$215.06
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$164.52
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$347.67
(+61.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+61.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ONTO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits user expresses bullish sentiment about $ONTO based on Q3 revenue growth of 88% and projected revenue growth of over 45% in 2026. No recent news articles available.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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