PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$83.56
1.01 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
-1.33%
30d:
-1.73%
90d:
-6.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.14
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $83.56, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.10 to $89.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.20 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.20 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$83.10 -
$89.12
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($109.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.10 -
$89.12
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.81
Resistance Level
$89.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.39
Wall Street Target
$109.20
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.30
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$75.25
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$71.42
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$83.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 26.6%)
$228.35
(+173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 26.6%)
$169.58
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 26.6%)
$144.14
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.20
Bull Case
$117.35
(+40%)
Analyst growth 29.2%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$106.68
(+28%)
Market implied 29.2%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$56.13
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$97.70
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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