RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$4.57
-0.09 (-1.93%)
▼
5d:
-7.11%
30d:
-2.14%
90d:
-17.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.58
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.33
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $4.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.67 to $5.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.91 (+29.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.91 (+29.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.67 -
$5.06
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RWT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($5.91)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.67 -
$5.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.44
Resistance Level
$5.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.42
Wall Street Target
$5.91
(+29.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 5.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.16
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.78
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$3.44
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$4.59
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$28.70
(+528%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 10.2%)
$6.12
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$5.20
(+14%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$6.10
(+33.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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