SF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$83.32
0.41 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
+1.15%
30d:
+13.86%
90d:
+8.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.22
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $83.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.80 to $79.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$71.80 -
$79.90
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.80 -
$79.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.67
Resistance Level
$84.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$89.00
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.4%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.24
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$83.57
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$83.91
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$83.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$215.27
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$117.48
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$99.86
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.64
Bull Case
$118.11
(+43%)
Analyst growth 29.9%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$107.37
(+30%)
Market implied 29.9%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$56.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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