SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$13.31
0.54 (4.23%)
▲
5d:
+2.7%
30d:
+5.55%
90d:
+27.49%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 09, 2026
0d
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2 traders called SMPL this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.41
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $13.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.15 to $13.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+12.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+12.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.15 -
$13.18
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with -6.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.15 -
$13.18
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.27
Resistance Level
$12.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.90
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.39
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.47
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$13.55
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.37
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.5%)
$39.50
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 2.5%)
$14.33
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 2.5%)
$12.18
(-9%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-11
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