SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$11.45
0.52 (4.76%)
▲
5d:
+4.38%
30d:
+12.48%
90d:
-1.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.46
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $11.45, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.47 to $11.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.47 -
$11.24
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($14.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.47 -
$11.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.13
Resistance Level
$11.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.74
Wall Street Target
$14.38
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.01
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.60
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.19
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.50
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$37.65
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$12.62
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$10.72
(-6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$12.92
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 31, 2026 9:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
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