SPSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$54.78
-0.08 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
-0.76%
30d:
+2.43%
90d:
-6.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.44
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.23
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $54.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.91 to $56.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.55, while resistance sits at $60.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.09 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.55, while resistance sits at $60.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.09 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$52.91 -
$56.39
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($68.09)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.91 -
$56.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.55
Resistance Level
$60.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.48
Wall Street Target
$68.09
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.69
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$45.06
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$40.87
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→14)
$54.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$152.92
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$73.61
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$62.57
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$120.69
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$109.72
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$37.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$73.15
(+33.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marty M Reaume
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-07
Jamie Thingelstad
SELL
2418 shares
2026-02-24
Chadwick Collins
SELL
13384 shares
2026-02-20
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