STM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STM - STMicroelectronics N.V.
$54.41
2.22 (4.25%)
▲
5d:
+8.47%
30d:
-23.78%
90d:
-1.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.29
24.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STM is currently trading at $54.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.66 to $71.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.88, while resistance sits at $66.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: STM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.52 (+37.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.88, while resistance sits at $66.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: STM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.52 (+37.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$54.66 -
$71.51
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.0% below Wall St target ($71.52)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.66 -
$71.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.88
Resistance Level
$66.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.60
Wall Street Target
$71.52
(+37.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 23.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.89
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$47.70
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$45.60
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$52.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 87.2%)
$177.23
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 87.2%)
$176.14
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 87.2%)
$149.72
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 40.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.30
Bull Case
$63.02
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.0
Base Case
$52.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$39.93
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 23.6
Stabilization Target:
$59.78
(+14.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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