TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$202.94
4.15 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
-0.18%
30d:
+2.21%
90d:
-6.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.6% annual earnings decline despite 7150% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.6% annual earnings decline despite 7150% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$337.44
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.52
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $202.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $196.96 to $209.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7150.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $190.27, while resistance sits at $211.99.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.40 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $190.27, while resistance sits at $211.99.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.40 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$196.96 -
$209.32
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($257.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$196.96 -
$209.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.27
Resistance Level
$211.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.75
Wall Street Target
$257.40
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7150.0%
Profit Margin
15.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$189.65
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$180.92
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$172.60
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$198.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$374.18
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$281.25
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$239.07
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.37
Bull Case
$296.81
(+46%)
Analyst growth 34.7%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$269.83
(+33%)
Market implied 34.7%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$136.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$228.49
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 26, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-04-08
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-18
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-03-02
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