TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$204.41
-8.28 (-3.89%)
▼
5d:
-5.43%
30d:
+0.91%
90d:
+1.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$345.17
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$214.33
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $204.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.37 to $215.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7150.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $200.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $263.47 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $200.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $263.47 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$203.37 -
$215.59
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TEL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($263.47)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.37 -
$215.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$200.42
Resistance Level
$220.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.82
Wall Street Target
$263.47
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7150.0%
Profit Margin
15.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$206.31
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$200.12
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$194.12
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$212.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$392.22
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$302.90
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 12.5%)
$257.46
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.79
Bull Case
$309.22
(+45%)
Analyst growth 29.2%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$281.11
(+32%)
Market implied 29.2%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$147.99
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$232.67
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-04-08
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-18
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-03-02
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