TJX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TJX - TJX Companies, Inc. (The)
$164.35
0.18 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
-1.78%
30d:
+4.38%
90d:
+5.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TJX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TJX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.62
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TJX is currently trading at $164.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.82 to $165.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.8) is in line with its historical norms (30.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $164.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TJX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $164.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TJX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$153.82 -
$165.55
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($177.63)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$153.82 -
$165.55
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.34
Resistance Level
$164.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.84
Wall Street Target
$177.63
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
31.8 vs 30.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$167.99
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$169.83
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$164.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$220.20
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$150.61
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.2%)
$128.02
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.14
Bull Case
$181.33
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.4%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$164.84
(+0%)
Market implied 0.4%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$111.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 7:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TJX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ernie Herrman
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-06
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