TJX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TJX - TJX Companies, Inc. (The)
$149.42
-1.11 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-3.04%
30d:
-11.24%
90d:
-6.22%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TJX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TJX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.62
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TJX is currently trading at $149.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.91 to $165.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.2) is in line with its historical norms (30.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $152.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $177.63 (+18.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $152.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $177.63 (+18.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$151.91 -
$165.38
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($177.63)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.91 -
$165.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.34
Resistance Level
$164.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.17
Wall Street Target
$177.63
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 30.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.82
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$145.16
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$142.55
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→31)
$150.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$201.68
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$150.61
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.2%)
$128.02
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.15
Bull Case
$166.83
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.2%, PE expands to 32.3
Base Case
$151.67
(+1%)
Market implied 0.2%, PE stable at 29.4
Bear Case
$102.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.2 to 30.8
Stabilization Target:
$158.96
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TJX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ernie Herrman
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-06
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