TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$123.45
-1.66 (-1.32%)
▼
5d:
-7.83%
30d:
-12.64%
90d:
+2.91%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TKR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TKR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.40
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $123.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $127.74 to $139.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.20 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.20 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$127.74 -
$139.10
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($147.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 7.5% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 11% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$127.74 -
$139.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.60
Resistance Level
$134.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.10
Wall Street Target
$147.20
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.64
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$126.77
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$127.91
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$124.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.1%)
$228.97
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 16.1%)
$195.07
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 16.1%)
$165.81
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$276.47
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$251.34
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$85.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 10:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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