TNL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$71.69
0.95 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
-5.03%
30d:
-2.4%
90d:
+9.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TNL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TNL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.81
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.74
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $71.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.82 to $76.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.00 (+28.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.00 (+28.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$72.82 -
$76.84
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.6% below Wall St target ($91.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.82 -
$76.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.37
Resistance Level
$76.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$91.00
(+28.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.48
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$66.29
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$64.16
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$70.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$282.00
(+299%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 16.6%)
$112.15
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 16.6%)
$95.33
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.74
Bull Case
$160.58
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$145.98
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$49.63
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$77.99
(+10.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
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