TNL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$72.79
-1.47 (-1.97%)
▼
5d:
-3.61%
30d:
+2.21%
90d:
-4.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TNL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TNL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.30
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.83
0.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $72.78, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.53 to $76.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.08 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.08 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$72.53 -
$76.60
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.53 -
$76.60
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.30
Resistance Level
$73.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.76
Wall Street Target
$87.08
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.10
(0%)
2-Year Target
$73.95
(0%)
3-Year Target
$73.81
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$74.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$281.22
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$113.12
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 15.1%)
$96.15
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.65
Bull Case
$162.69
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$147.90
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$50.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$74.58
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
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