TOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$151.84
-0.08 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+12.88%
90d:
+10.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$199.15
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$123.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $151.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.90 to $147.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TOL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TOL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$131.90 -
$147.77
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($164.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with -7.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$131.90 -
$147.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.35
Resistance Level
$146.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.76
Wall Street Target
$164.80
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.3%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$155.41
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$158.99
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$162.65
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$151.12
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.3%)
$412.70
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 10.3%)
$203.94
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 10.3%)
$173.35
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.15
Bull Case
$183.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$167.09
(+10%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$105.86
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F East
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-15
Douglas C Jr. Yearley
SELL
45116 shares
2026-02-24
Paul E Shapiro
SELL
3965 shares
2026-01-15
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Advanced TOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOL price and gamma walls.
