Is TOL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TOL is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TOL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TOL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TOL to be between $146.96 and $153.26. The current price is $147.09.

What is the analyst price target for TOL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TOL is $170.80. This implies a potential upside of 16.1% from current levels.

TOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.

OPERATIVE BUILDERS

$147.09

1.97 (1.36%) ▲

5d: -0.8%

30d: +0.37%

90d: +9.35%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TOL Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 18, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $152.60 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 4.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TOL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$200.68

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$124.61

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $147.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.96 to $153.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $141.73, while resistance sits at $154.15.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.80 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $146.96 - $153.26

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 73.3%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($170.80)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with -9.7% revenue growth
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $146.96 - $153.26

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $141.73

Resistance Level $154.15

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.48

Wall Street Target $170.80 (+16.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -9.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -20.4%

Profit Margin 11.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.9% premium

PE vs Historical 10.5 vs 10.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $148.41 (+1%)

2-Year Target $149.75 (+2%)

3-Year Target $151.10 (+3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $147.13 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.0%) $375.04 (+155%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 10.0%) $195.75 (+33%)

Bear: (PE: 8.9, Growth: 10.0%) $166.39 (+13%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.86

Bull Case $174.30 (+19%)

Analyst growth 9.2%, PE expands to 12.4

Base Case $158.45 (+8%)

Market implied 9.2%, PE stable at 11.3

Bear Case $98.68 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stephen F East SELL 1000 shares 2026-04-15

Douglas C Jr. Yearley SELL 45116 shares 2026-02-24

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