TPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$80.92
-6.73 (-7.68%)
▼
5d:
-5.4%
30d:
+1.07%
90d:
-3.16%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TPB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.45
6.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $80.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.61 to $86.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.3) is in line with its historical norms (26.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.00 (+60.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.00 (+60.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.61 -
$86.96
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.7% below Wall St target ($130.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 16.8% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.61 -
$86.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.67
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.54
Resistance Level
$90.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.29
Wall Street Target
$130.00
(+60.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.1%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 26.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.19
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$85.51
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$87.91
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 54.0%)
$273.11
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 54.0%)
$210.23
(+160%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 54.0%)
$178.70
(+121%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.92
Bull Case
$94.43
(+17%)
Analyst growth -2.1%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$85.85
(+6%)
Market implied -2.1%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$59.60
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew Flynn
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-04
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