TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$44.83
1.47 (3.39%)
▲
5d:
+1.89%
30d:
-7.51%
90d:
+15.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.59
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $44.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.20 to $48.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.94 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.94 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.20 -
$48.21
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($52.94)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.20 -
$48.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.70
Resistance Level
$45.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.67
Wall Street Target
$52.94
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.75
(0%)
2-Year Target
$43.58
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$43.40
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
$43.84
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 9.6%)
$57.83
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$53.07
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 9.6%)
$45.11
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$52.22
(+20%)
Analyst growth 12.0%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$47.47
(+10%)
Market implied 12.0%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$28.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.7 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$44.37
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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