TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$48.88
3.54 (7.81%)
▲
5d:
+4.22%
30d:
+24.76%
90d:
+33.12%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TREX trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TREX trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.83
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $48.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.31 to $45.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.4) compared to its historical average (22.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TREX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TREX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.31 -
$45.90
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.2% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.31 -
$45.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.19
Resistance Level
$44.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.35
Wall Street Target
$48.50
(-0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
26.4 vs 22.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.42
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$54.10
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$56.91
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.3, Growth: 10.6%)
$66.09
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.6%)
$54.64
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.6%)
$46.44
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 25.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$51.41
(+5%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$46.73
(-4%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$30.83
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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