Is TSCO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSCO is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TSCO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSCO to be between $30.37 and $34.89. The current price is $34.98.

What is the analyst price target for TSCO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSCO is $35.52. This implies a potential upside of 1.3% from current levels.

TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$34.98

-0.07 (-0.20%) ▼

5d: -2.37%

30d: +15.37%

90d: +10.45%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TSCO Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 20, 2026 at $34.92 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 4.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$50.65

Based on 6.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$31.45

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $34.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.37 to $34.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.77, while resistance sits at $36.89.

Market Sentiment: TSCO scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $30.37 - $34.89

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.52)
WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $30.37 - $34.89

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $33.77

Resistance Level $36.89

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.13

Wall Street Target $35.52 (+1.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -15.0%

Profit Margin 6.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.1 vs 18.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $34.45 (-2%)

2-Year Target $33.87 (-3%)

3-Year Target $33.29 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→18) $34.98 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.2%) $53.54 (+53%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 9.2%) $45.70 (+30%)

Bear: (PE: 14.6, Growth: 9.2%) $38.85 (+11%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 18.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96

Bull Case $40.69 (+16%)

Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 19.9

Base Case $36.99 (+6%)

Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 18.1

Bear Case $24.10 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 18.0

Stabilization Target: $36.82 (+5.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +5.1%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

April McClain Delaney BUY 2026-03-31

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

April McClain Delaney BUY 2026-03-16

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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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