TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$29.68
-0.13 (-0.44%)
▼
5d:
-3.89%
30d:
-6.28%
90d:
-35.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.72
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.46
18.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $29.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.81 to $31.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.36, while resistance sits at $31.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.22 (+51.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.36, while resistance sits at $31.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.22 (+51.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$29.81 -
$31.42
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.7% below Wall St target ($45.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.81 -
$31.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.36
Resistance Level
$31.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.98
Wall Street Target
$45.22
(+51.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$24.15
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→19)
$31.63
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$63.93
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$38.11
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$32.39
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$37.62
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$34.20
(+15%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$20.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$43.39
(+45.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.
