TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$30.77
0.56 (1.85%)
▲
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
-12.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.36
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.51
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $30.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.89 to $31.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.0) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.96, while resistance sits at $32.40.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.52 (+15.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.96, while resistance sits at $32.40.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.52 (+15.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.89 -
$31.32
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($35.52)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.89 -
$31.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.96
Resistance Level
$32.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.97
Wall Street Target
$35.52
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.86
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$27.07
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$25.39
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$30.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$56.95
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$41.13
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$34.96
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$36.52
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$33.20
(+8%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$20.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$37.20
(+20.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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