UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$48.44
0.72 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
+7.1%
30d:
-0.49%
90d:
+31.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Get Alerted When UFCS Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UFCS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UFCS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.89
Based on -14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $48.44, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.83 to $48.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$44.83 -
$48.63
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.83 -
$48.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.01
Resistance Level
$47.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.69
Wall Street Target
$51.00
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.12
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$49.81
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$50.50
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.17
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -33.0%)
$98.32
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: -33.0%)
$47.96
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -33.0%)
$40.77
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.96
Bull Case
$47.94
(-1%)
Analyst growth -8.7%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$43.58
(-10%)
Market implied -8.7%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$32.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 2:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
BUY
25 analysts |
$241 | 60 HOLD |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
SELL
28 analysts |
$313 | 62 BUY |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$345 | 62 BUY |
|
PGR
Progressive Corp |
BUY
19 analysts |
$231 | 61 BUY |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 59 HOLD |
