UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$51.36
-0.69 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
-3.86%
90d:
+27.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UFCS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UFCS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.28
Based on -14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $51.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.47 to $52.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.23, while resistance sits at $53.12.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.23, while resistance sits at $53.12.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$50.47 -
$52.84
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.47 -
$52.84
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.23
Resistance Level
$53.12
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.34
Wall Street Target
$51.00
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.80
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$54.28
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$55.80
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -33.0%)
$92.98
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: -33.0%)
$50.85
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: -33.0%)
$43.23
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.96
Bull Case
$52.29
(+2%)
Analyst growth -8.7%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$47.54
(-7%)
Market implied -8.7%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$35.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
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