UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$36.12
-0.06 (-0.17%)
▼
5d:
-3.24%
30d:
+5.12%
90d:
+0.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.40
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.26
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $36.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.94 to $36.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.33 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.33 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.94 -
$36.79
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.94 -
$36.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.66
Resistance Level
$37.62
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.99
Wall Street Target
$42.33
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.16
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$36.19
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$36.23
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$36.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.3%)
$107.10
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 16.3%)
$56.78
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 16.3%)
$48.26
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.80
Bull Case
$46.72
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$42.47
(+18%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$24.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean Felix Tematio
SELL
12840 shares
2026-02-11
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