UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$145.14
-0.72 (-0.49%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.54%
30d:
+4.33%
90d:
+10.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UMBF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UMBF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$172.82
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $145.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.96 to $149.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.31 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.31 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$142.96 -
$149.27
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($167.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$142.96 -
$149.27
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.01
Resistance Level
$153.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.46
Wall Street Target
$167.31
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.21
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$152.65
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$156.16
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$146.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.6%)
$329.62
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 5.6%)
$171.72
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$145.96
(+0%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.71
Bull Case
$191.46
(+32%)
Analyst growth 19.1%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$174.06
(+20%)
Market implied 19.1%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$99.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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