UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$40.86
0.89 (2.23%)
▲
5d:
+8.38%
30d:
+4.82%
90d:
+17.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.19
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $40.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.63 to $39.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.63 -
$39.34
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.63 -
$39.34
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.39
Resistance Level
$39.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.08
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.05
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$40.13
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$40.21
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -7.4%)
$76.17
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -7.4%)
$31.77
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: -7.4%)
$27.00
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.76
Bull Case
$27.44
(-31%)
Analyst growth -34.9%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$24.94
(-38%)
Market implied -34.9%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$26.06
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 11:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
Richard D Peterson
SELL
1855 shares
2025-12-30
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