UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$41.45
-1.36 (-3.18%)
▼
5d:
-1.78%
30d:
+8.85%
90d:
+18.7%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.60
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $41.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.81 to $42.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$37.81 -
$42.10
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.81 -
$42.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.39
Resistance Level
$39.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.42
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.99
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$42.53
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$43.09
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.62
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -7.4%)
$76.17
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -7.4%)
$32.95
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -7.4%)
$28.00
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.76
Bull Case
$30.18
(-30%)
Analyst growth -34.9%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$27.43
(-36%)
Market implied -34.9%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$28.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
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