VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
$292.78
-2.47 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-3.96%
30d:
+7.38%
90d:
-0.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$447.83
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$278.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $292.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $281.46 to $304.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.1) is in line with its historical norms (27.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $288.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $326.55 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $288.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $326.55 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$281.46 -
$304.28
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($326.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$281.46 -
$304.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$269.53
Resistance Level
$288.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.11
Wall Street Target
$326.55
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 27.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$290.44
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$288.11
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$285.81
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→28)
$293.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.1, Growth: 17.5%)
$475.22
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.5%)
$381.85
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$324.57
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.44
Bull Case
$415.64
(+42%)
Analyst growth 28.0%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$377.85
(+29%)
Market implied 28.0%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$200.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.1 to 27.8
Stabilization Target:
$300.28
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Melissa H Anderson
SELL
1137 shares
2026-02-20
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