EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$221.09
-2.41 (-1.08%)
▼
5d:
+1.44%
30d:
+11.03%
90d:
+21.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.83
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $221.09, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.76 to $221.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $225.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $225.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$203.76 -
$221.58
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($223.56)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 1.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.76 -
$221.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$206.73
Resistance Level
$225.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.44
Wall Street Target
$223.56
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$227.72
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$234.55
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$241.59
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$221.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.1%)
$267.47
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: -1.1%)
$214.15
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: -1.1%)
$182.02
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.16
Bull Case
$236.86
(+7%)
Analyst growth -3.7%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$215.33
(-3%)
Market implied -3.7%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$151.98
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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