Eagle Materials (EXP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$183.64
1.80 (0.99%)
▲
5d:
+5.11%
30d:
+6.11%
90d:
-14.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.74
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $183.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $167.37 to $178.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $184.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $184.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$167.37 -
$178.27
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($193.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$167.37 -
$178.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.69
Resistance Level
$184.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.48
Wall Street Target
$193.00
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.50
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$173.50
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$168.64
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$182.80
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$243.89
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: -1.1%)
$177.87
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: -1.1%)
$151.19
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.69
Bull Case
$199.85
(+9%)
Analyst growth -0.1%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$181.68
(-1%)
Market implied -0.1%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$123.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$199.06
(+8.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 31, 2026 2:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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