Eagle Materials (EXP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$176.82
-0.92 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-4.48%
30d:
-14.32%
90d:
-21.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.19
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $176.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.83 to $205.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $175.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.50 (+24.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $175.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.50 (+24.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$184.83 -
$205.02
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($220.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$184.83 -
$205.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$175.78
Resistance Level
$195.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.95
Wall Street Target
$220.50
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$168.69
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$160.93
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$153.52
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$177.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -1.1%)
$248.07
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$171.27
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$145.58
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.57
Bull Case
$197.20
(+12%)
Analyst growth 0.9%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$179.28
(+1%)
Market implied 0.9%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$120.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$204.13
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 20, 2026 9:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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