Eagle Materials (EXP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$164.70
-2.60 (-1.55%)
▼
5d:
-3.89%
30d:
-10.38%
90d:
-19.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$216.47
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $164.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.70 to $187.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $164.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.90 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $164.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.90 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$170.70 -
$187.10
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (17/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($210.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$170.70 -
$187.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$164.09
Resistance Level
$179.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.99
Wall Street Target
$210.90
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 15.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.99
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$143.98
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$134.63
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$164.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$243.89
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: -1.1%)
$159.53
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -1.1%)
$135.60
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.69
Bull Case
$183.87
(+12%)
Analyst growth -0.1%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$167.15
(+2%)
Market implied -0.1%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$113.76
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$201.59
(+22.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 1:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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