EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$198.87
-5.38 (-2.63%)
▼
5d:
-0.79%
30d:
-8.22%
90d:
-3.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$220.55
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $198.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.31 to $214.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $198.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.30 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $198.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXP scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.30 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$203.31 -
$214.73
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($225.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.31 -
$214.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$198.70
Resistance Level
$214.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.69
Wall Street Target
$225.30
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$196.88
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$194.91
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$192.96
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$199.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -1.1%)
$246.22
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: -1.1%)
$192.62
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: -1.1%)
$163.73
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.52
Bull Case
$227.52
(+14%)
Analyst growth 1.3%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$206.84
(+4%)
Market implied 1.3%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$138.89
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$205.39
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 26, 2026 3:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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