YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$43.90
0.88 (2.05%)
▲
5d:
+3.32%
30d:
+0.25%
90d:
-11.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YUMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YUMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.91
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.52
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $43.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.21 to $43.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.34 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.34 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$41.21 -
$43.60
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.7% below Wall St target ($61.34)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.21 -
$43.60
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.32
Resistance Level
$44.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.44
Wall Street Target
$61.34
(+39.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.88
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$39.95
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$38.12
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$43.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.4%)
$100.96
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$62.33
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$52.98
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$59.20
(+35%)
Analyst growth 25.1%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$53.82
(+23%)
Market implied 25.1%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$29.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$50.61
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
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