ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$93.71
1.67 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
+2.42%
30d:
-2.52%
90d:
+0.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.19
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $93.71, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.34 to $94.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 94.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.71 (+16.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.71 (+16.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$89.34 -
$94.78
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($108.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.34 -
$94.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.51
Resistance Level
$93.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.47
Wall Street Target
$108.71
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
94.6%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$92.22
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$91.48
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$93.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$261.26
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 6.6%)
$113.64
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$96.59
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.00
Bull Case
$76.31
(-17%)
Analyst growth -23.9%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$69.38
(-25%)
Market implied -23.9%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$62.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$95.95
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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