AGRO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGRO - ADECOAGRO S.A.
$11.04
-0.61 (-5.24%)
▼
5d:
-3.16%
30d:
-15.21%
90d:
+1.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When AGRO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGRO is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AGRO is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.44
Based on -15.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGRO is currently trading at $11.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.75 to $13.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGRO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.54 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGRO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.54 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.75 -
$13.33
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.54)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.75 -
$13.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.96
Resistance Level
$12.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.04
Wall Street Target
$13.54
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.94
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$12.24
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$12.55
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -34.4%)
$20.59
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: -34.4%)
$8.49
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: -34.4%)
$7.22
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 27.10 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.43
Bull Case
$14.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$11.65
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$8.91
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 12:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AGRO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Artigas Manuela Vaz
SELL
1163 shares
2026-04-21
Bentancor Oscar Alejandr…
SELL
1163 shares
2026-04-21
Christian Ferdinando E D…
SELL
1163 shares
2026-04-21
Top Rated Farm Products Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Farm Products by analyst ratings.
