AGRO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGRO - ADECOAGRO S.A.
$9.08
0.02 (0.28%)
▲
5d:
-3.97%
30d:
-8.61%
90d:
-30.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGRO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGRO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.61
Based on -14.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGRO is currently trading at $9.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.47 to $10.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 55.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGRO scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.58 (+50.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGRO scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.58 (+50.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.47 -
$10.53
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.0% below Wall St target ($13.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.47 -
$10.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.01
Resistance Level
$10.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.25
Wall Street Target
$13.58
(+50.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.66
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$8.29
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$7.93
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$9.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -32.0%)
$18.40
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -32.0%)
$6.60
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -32.0%)
$5.61
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 27.10 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.33
Bull Case
$10.93
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$9.05
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$6.92
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.36
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 14, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGRO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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