What is the fair value of AMZN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMZN to be between $240.15 and $272.03. The current price is $258.63.

What is the analyst price target for AMZN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMZN is $326.84. This implies a potential upside of 26.4% from current levels.

AMZN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMZN - Amazon.Com Inc

RETAIL-CATALOG & MAIL-ORDER HOUSES

$258.63

-1.48 (-0.57%) ▼

5d: -1.53%

30d: +10.69%

90d: -3.66%

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LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 30, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $264.68 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: AMZN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -15.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$190.94

Based on -5.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$118.56

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMZN is currently trading at $258.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $240.15 to $272.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.7) is in line with its historical norms (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 242.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $257.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AMZN scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $326.84 (+26.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $240.15 - $272.03

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 50.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($326.84)
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $240.15 - $272.03

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $257.04

Resistance Level $280.14

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.71

Wall Street Target $326.84 (+26.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 19.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 242.3%

Profit Margin 17.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 24.7 vs 25.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $254.75 (-2%)

2-Year Target $250.93 (-3%)

3-Year Target $247.17 (-4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→26) $258.08 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.7, Growth: -15.7%) $188.54 (+-27%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -15.7%) $153.14 (-41%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: -15.7%) $130.17 (-50%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 20.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.44

Bull Case $240.74 (-7%)

Analyst growth -15.9%, PE expands to 23.0

Base Case $218.86 (-15%)

Market implied -15.9%, PE stable at 20.9

Bear Case $176.88 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.7 to 25.8

Stabilization Target: $270.05 (+4.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.4%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Andrew R Jassy SELL 31000 shares 2026-04-17

Douglas J Herrington SELL 20500 shares 2026-04-14

Douglas J Herrington SELL 1000 shares 2026-04-01

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